At first glance, the two studies appear to reach opposite conclusions, that is, the ALLHAT findings favour diuretics whereas the ANBP2 findings favour ACE inhibitors. However, when comparing the studies, one needs to consider the ways in which systematic differences between the trials and random variation about the estimates of effect might affect the validity of this conclusion. Two particular differences between ALLHAT and ANBP2 were the blood pressure reductions that were achieved in the randomised groups and the ethnicity of the study populations.
Target blood pressure
In both trials, doctors aimed to achieve similar target blood pressures by first using the drugs under investigation and then adding other antihypertensives as required. In ANBP2 the blood pressure reductions were almost identical in each group. However, in ALLHAT, the systolic blood pressure at follow-up was 2 mmHg higher in the ACE inhibitor group compared with the diuretic group. While small, a 2 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure would, on the basis of epidemiology, be expected to result in an approximately 10% lower stroke risk and a 7% lower coronary risk.3 The smaller benefits of ACE inhibitors observed in ALLHAT might therefore be attributable to the less effective blood pressure control achieved in this group.
Ethnicity
ALLHAT included a large proportion (over one-third) of African-Americans, while most patients in ANBP2 were white. Subsidiary analyses suggested that the increased risk in those receiving an ACE inhibitor in ALLHAT might have been partly attributable to less effective blood pressure control with ACE inhibitors (4 mmHg higher at follow-up) among black patients. This is an observation which has been reported elsewhere.4
Design
The two trials differed in study design. In ANBP2, the PROBE (Prospective, Randomised Open with Blinded Endpoint assessment) design meant that general practitioners were aware of the assignment of study drugs and were free to choose the most appropriate second-line drug to achieve blood pressure control.
In ALLHAT, not only were physicians blind to treatment assignment, but they were also restricted, by protocol, to using potentially less favourable combinations of drugs. Sub-optimal combinations are a further possible explanation for the follow-up differences in blood pressure in the two randomised groups.
Power
The differences in the size of the trials and the numbers of events observed produced markedly different levels of precision about the estimates of effect obtained in each study. No previous trial of antihypertensive therapy has approached the size of ALLHAT which recorded nearly 5000 deaths, 3000 coronary events and more than 1500 strokes. The large study size increased the power to detect differences between the treatments as evidenced by the tight confidence limits around the estimates of effect.
Relative to ALLHAT, ANBP2 was small, and had greatly reduced power to reliably detect the differences between the treatments and to examine the effects on cause-specific outcomes or in patient sub-groups. For every outcome reported in ANBP2 the confidence intervals were considerably wider than those for ALLHAT. In almost every case the confidence intervals in ANBP2 substantially overlapped the estimates of effect identified in ALLHAT.